Spatiotemporal estimation of snow depth using point data from snow stakes,digital terrain models,and satellite data          下载免费PDF全文

Antonio‐Juan Collados‐Lara  Eulogio Pardo‐Igúzquiza  David Pulido‐Velazquez 《水文研究》2017,31(10):1966-1982

Snow availability in Alpine catchments plays an important role in water resources management. In this paper, we propose a method for an optimal estimation of snow depth (areal extension and thickness) in Alpine systems from point data and satellite observations by using significant explanatory variables deduced from a digital terrain model. It is intended to be a parsimonious approach that may complement physical‐based methodologies. Different techniques (multiple regression, multicriteria analysis, and kriging) are integrated to address the following issues: We identify the explanatory variables that could be helpful on the basis of a critical review of the scientific literature. We study the relationship between ground observations and explanatory variables using a systematic procedure for a complete multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression models are calibrated combining all suggested model structures and explanatory variables. We also propose an evaluation of the models (using indices to analyze the goodness of fit) and select the best approaches (models and variables) on the basis of multicriteria analysis. Estimation of the snow depth is performed with the selected regression models. The residual estimation is improved by applying kriging in cases with spatial correlation. The final estimate is obtained by combining regression and kriging results, and constraining the snow domain in accordance with satellite data. The method is illustrated using the case study of the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Southern Spain). A cross‐validation experiment has confirmed the efficiency of the proposed procedure. Finally, although it is not the scope of this work, the snow depth is used to asses a first estimation of snow water equivalent resources.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?          下载免费PDF全文

Bettina Matti  Helen E. Dahlke  Bastien Dieppois  Damian M. Lawler  Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4354-4370

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.  相似文献   

Validating the ability of the discontinuous deformation analysis method to model normal P‐wave propagation across rock fractures          下载免费PDF全文

Wenjun Gong  Yunsheng Wang  Youjun Ning  Yonghong Luo  Yujie Wang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(10):1267-1282

The effects of fractures on wave propagation problems are increasingly abstracting the attention of scholars and engineers in rock engineering field. This study aims to fully validate the ability of discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) to model normal P‐wave propagation across rock fractures. The effects of a single fracture and multiple parallel fractures are all tested. The results indicate that DDA can accurately reflect the fracture effects, including the fractures stiffness, the fracture spacing and the fracture number, and the effects of incident wave frequency on one‐dimensional P‐wave propagation problems. Thus, DDA is able to deal well with normal incident P‐wave propagation problems. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Using principal component analysis in the investigation of groundwater hydrochemistry of Upper Jezireh Basin,Syria     

Boulos Abou Zakhem  Abdulrahman Al-Charideh  Bassam Kattaa 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(14):2266-2279

Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to hydrochemical and isotopic data of 34 groundwater samples. This allowed the reduction of 20 variables to four significant PCs that explain 81.9% of the total variance; F1 (47.1%) explains the groundwater mineralization, whereas F2 (17%) shows isotopic enrichment and nitrate pollution. Based on an iso-factor scores map of F1, three water zones were delineated: Zone A (F1 < ?1), with fresh groundwater from the unconfined aquifer; Zone B (1 > F1 > ?1), with moderate mineralization from the confined–unconfined aquifer boundary; and Zone C (F1 > 1), with the most mineralized hot water from the confined aquifer. The iso-factor scores map of F2 delineates positive values representing samples from the unconfined aquifer, with freshwater and nitrate contamination associated with stable isotope enrichment, whereas negative values represent samples from the confined aquifer. The results clearly demonstrate the usefulness of PCA in groundwater hydrochemistry investigations.  相似文献   

Analysis of the contributions of topographic,soil, and vegetation features on the spatial distributions of surface soil moisture in a steep natural forested headwater catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Wei‐Li Liang  Sheng‐Lun Li  Feng‐Xu Hung 《水文研究》2017,31(22):3796-3809

Surface soil moisture has been extensively studied for various land uses and landforms. Although many studies have reported potential factors that control surface soil moisture over space or time, the findings have not always been consistent, indicating a need for identification of the main factors. This study focused on the static controls of topographic, soil, and vegetation features on surface soil moisture in a steep natural forested headwater catchment consisting of three hillslope units of a gully area, side slope, and valley‐head slope. Using a simple correlation analysis to investigate the effects of the static factors on surface soil moisture at depths of 0–20 cm at 470 points in 13 surveys, we addressed the characteristics of surface soil moisture and its main controlling factors. The results indicated that the mean of surface soil moisture was in the decreasing order of gully area > valley‐head slope > side slope. The relationship between the mean and standard deviation of surface soil moisture showed a convex‐upward shape in the headwater catchment, a negative curvilinear shape in the gully area, and positive curvilinear shapes at the side and valley‐head slopes. At the headwater catchment and valley‐head slope, positive contributions of soil porosity and negative contributions of slope gradient and saturated hydraulic conductivity were the main controlling factors of surface soil moisture under wetter conditions, whereas positive contributions of topographic wetness index and negative contributions of vegetation density were the main controlling factors of surface soil moisture under drier conditions. At the side slope underlain by fractured bedrocks, only saturated hydraulic conductivity and vegetation density were observed to be the controlling factors. Surface soil moisture in the gully area was mainly affected by runoff rather than were static features. Thus, using hillslope units is effective for approximately estimating the hydrological behaviours of surface moisture on a larger scale, whereas dependency between the main static factors and moisture conditions is helpful for estimating the spatial distributions of surface moisture on a smaller scale.  相似文献   

Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico     

José J. Hernández Ayala  David Keellings  Peter R. Waylen  Corene J. Matyas 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(13):2103-2119

An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.  相似文献   

体应变地震波最大振幅与地震震级和震中距的统计关系探讨     

姜佳宁  吴利军 《中国地震研究》2017,31(1):107-115

Based on the body strain record of Tiantanghe station from 2008 to 2014,we make a statistical analysis of the relationship between the maximum amplitude of the body strain record and the surface-wave magnitude,epicenter distance of the earthquakes,which occurred in the Chinese mainland and its surrounding areas with MS≥6. 0 and the rest of the world with MS≥7. 0. According to statistical results,we propose a statistical formula between the surface-wave magnitude of earthquake and the maximum amplitude of the body strain record,the epicenter distance: M_S~*= 0. 37 ln A_max+ 0. 57 ln D + 0. 07. We can also derive a theoretical estimation formula for the maximum amplitude: A_max=e~(2. 7(M_S~*-0. 07))D~(-1. 54). This demonstrates that the maximum amplitude of the body strain record increases exponentially with the increase of the surface-wave magnitude, and decreases with the increase of the epicenter distance,and shows a negative correlation with their product. We further discuss the necessity of adding instruments with high frequency sampling to earthquake monitoring, and dicuss the prospects for precise earthquake prediction in future.  相似文献   

东北冷涡对海河流域初夏降水异常的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

何丽烨  马宁  郭军 《地球物理学报》2017,60(10):3745-3752

东北冷涡是东亚中高纬度地区的重要天气系统,其频繁活动可能导致显著的气候效应,不仅对东北局地,而且对海河流域地区初夏降水产生影响.本文利用海河流域34个地面气象台站逐日降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对东北冷涡与海河流域初夏降水的关系进行研究,结果表明:初夏东北冷涡活动与海河流域降水存在显著的相关关系,对其空间分布亦有重要影响.当东北冷涡活动偏多(少)时,海河流域北部地区(尤其是海河下游)初夏降水可能偏多(少),对应时间系数为正(负)时海河流域初夏降水EOF第二模态北多(少)南少(多)的空间分布.在东北冷涡活动偏多年,东北冷涡引导北方"干冷"空气南下推进至海河流域北部,伴随该地区源自西风带水汽输送和水汽辐合的增强,形成了"上干下湿"的不稳定层结,在上升运动的触发下,导致海河流域北部初夏降水偏多;而东北冷涡活动偏少年情况正好相反.东北冷涡活动为海河流域尤其是海河下游地区初夏降水预测提供了具有参考意义的结果,其活动指数与海河下游初夏降水距平的符号一致率在近30年高达83%.  相似文献   

Selection between the generalized Pareto and kappa distributions in peaks-over-threshold hydrological frequency modelling     

Fahim Ashkar  Ismaila Ba 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(7):1167-1180

Hydrologists use the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution in peaks-over-threshold (POT) modelling of extremes. A model with similar uses is the two-parameter kappa (KAP) distribution. KAP has had fewer hydrological applications than GP, but some studies have shown it to merit wider use. The problem of choosing between GP and KAP arises quite often in frequency analyses. This study, by comparing some discrimination methods between these two models, aims to show which method(s) is (are) recommended. Three specific methods are considered: one uses the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit (GoF) statistic, another uses the ratio of maximized likelihood (closely related to the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion), and the third employs a normality transformation followed by application of the Shapiro-Wilk statistic. We show this last method to be the most recommendable, due to its advantages with sizes typically encountered in hydrology. We apply the simulation results to some flood POT datasets.